What are the rates of interest expectations for the key central banks?

Price cuts by year-end

• Fed: 59 bps (92% chance of price reduce on the upcoming assembly)
• ECB: 13 bps (88% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)
• BoE: 18 bps (95% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)
• BoC: 20 bps (72% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)
• RBA: 63 bps (98% chance of price reduce on the upcoming assembly)
• RBNZ: 41 bps (88% chance of price reduce on the upcoming assembly)
• SNB: 12 bps (84% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)

Price hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 13 bps (90% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)

We have not seen a lot change this week because the fast repricing triggered by the gentle NFP report. Essentially the most notable repricing occurred with the BoE because it delivered a hawkish price reduce yesterday. The market is now seeing principally a 50/50 likelihood of one other reduce by year-end. After all the whole lot hinges on the info going ahead.

Talking of the info, the main target has now turned to the US CPI report developing on Tuesday. That is going to be the subsequent main occasion earlier than the Jackson Gap Symposium scheduled for August 21-23.

This text was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.