USDCAD falls beneath the 100 and 200 hour MAs. First break beneath 200 hour MA since October 2

The USDCAD broke increased on the finish of final week and within the course of prolonged above excessive from August at 1.39458. The excessive worth reached 1.3958 and closed the week at 1.39484.

Nonetheless, after the weekend election ballot information, yields moved decrease, the USD moved decrease and the USDCAD gapped down as nicely. That took the worth again beneath the outdated 2024 excessive and likewise took the worth beneath the 100-hour MA at 1.39168 and extra lately the 200 hour MA at 1.38896.

The break beneath the 200-hour MA is the primary break since October 2 (over a month in the past). So sellers are making a play. The 200-hour MA is now shut resistance/danger for sellers in search of extra draw back momentum.

On the draw back there’s some help at 1.3864 space and beneath swing space between 1.38337 and 1.38475. The rising 100-bar MA on the Four-hour chart is at 1.3843. Transfer beneath that space opens the door for extra draw back corrective probiing after the pattern transfer increased in October.

A transfer again above the 200 hour MA at 1.38895 would have merchants trying again towards 1.39168.

After all numerous volatility is predicted this week because of the US elections adopted by the US interest-rate determination on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is predicted to chop charges by 25 foundation factors. What they do in December and going ahead can be the main target from the assembly.

With volatility anticipated, it is very important perceive the technical ranges in play as they provide merchants the danger defining ranges, and targets going ahead.

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USDCAD Technical Evaluation

The USDCAD broke increased late final week, surpassing August’s excessive (1.39458) and reaching 1.3958, however subsequently gapped down on account of weekend election ballot information.

Present Market State of affairs

The value fell beneath the outdated 2024 excessive, 100-hour MA (1.39168), and 200-hour MA (1.38896), indicating sellers’ momentum.

Key Ranges

Resistance:

• 1.38896 (200-hour MA, shut resistance/danger for sellers)

• 1.39168 (100-hour MA)

Assist:

• 1.3864 (help space)

• 1.38337-1.38475 (swing space)

• 1.3843 (rising 100-bar MA on Four-hour chart)

Market Outlook

A break beneath 1.3843 might result in additional draw back correction, whereas a transfer above 1.38896 might shift focus again to 1.39168.

Key Occasions

• US elections (this week)

• US interest-rate determination (Thursday, anticipated 25 foundation level reduce)

Understanding these technical ranges is essential amid anticipated volatility, offering risk-defining ranges and targets for merchants.

This text was written by Emma Wang at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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