UK Q2 GDP information arising, set to replicate a substantial slowdown from Q1

Whereas the UK authorities was fast to take the plaudits for the Q1 displaying (+zero.7% q/q), let’s not neglect that it has loads to do with a surge in exports amid a frontloading of shipments earlier than Trump’s preliminary reciprocal tariffs struck. As such, we’re to see that impact reverse in Q2 alongside softer circumstances on the manufacturing aspect on the steadiness.

The estimate is that we must always see Q2 GDP nonetheless replicate marginal progress of +zero.1% q/q. Nonetheless, it will not be something for the UK authorities to shout about. And for the BOE, that may reinforce their extra cautious stance in easing financial coverage as they nonetheless should hold one eye on the inflation meter.

Amongst analyst estimates, Barclays is anticipating a +zero.2% q/q studying (backed by a +zero.2% m/m displaying in June) offered that there are not any revisions to the readings within the months earlier than. The agency notes that the higher displaying in Q1 owes a lot to non permanent elements, “together with US demand frontloading and the April stamp responsibility change”.

In the meantime, Morgan Stanley is estimating the headline estimate to flatline at zero.zero% q/q. The agency does be aware that there’s modest upside danger of a +zero.1% q/q studying although however assumes a slight downward revision to Could information and a average pickup in June exercise.

This text was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.