UBS: View throughout main FX for the week forward

USD

• Persevering with its downtrend after a July rebound.

• Softer knowledge and dovish Fed alerts increase odds of September charge cuts.

• Markets now worth barely greater than 25bps lower for September.

• Powell at Jackson Gap might define restart of easing cycle.

• View: Additional USD weak point; EURUSD concentrating on 1.21 by year-end.

EUR

• Concentrate on June commerce knowledge and Thursday’s flash PMIs.

• Restoration in manufacturing anticipated to assist sentiment.

• Geopolitics (Ukraine/Russia) might add volatility.

• Most important driver stays USD course.

• View: EURUSD to recuperate, secure vs GBP and CHF; EURCHF bias zero.94–zero.95 vary.

GBP

• Focus shifts to UK CPI subsequent Wednesday.

• Hawkish BoE stance and stronger GDP supportive however largely priced in.

• Resistance at 1.38 unlikely to interrupt sustainably till later this yr.

• BoE caught between weak development, gentle labor market, and excessive inflation.

• View: GBP supported by enticing carry, however dangers from fiscal points make outlook cautious.

AUD

• RBA lower 25bps to three.6% in August, steerage largely unchanged.

• Labor market robust: unemployment at four.24%, massive full-time jobs acquire.

• Inflation pressures and wage development stay elevated.

• View: Cautious easing path with two extra cuts (Nov, Feb) to three.1%. AUDUSD seen at zero.68–zero.70 mid-2026; favor longs at zero.64 or under.

JPY

• USDJPY drifting decrease to 146–147 as Fed cuts priced in.

• Native studies counsel BoJ dealing with stress for hawkish shift.

• CPI anticipated round three.three%, above 2% goal.

• View: BoJ might hike in December (not totally priced); choose promoting USDJPY upside for yield pickup.

This text was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.