The ECB is 100% going to chop at this time however what's anticipated for the opposite central banks?

Fee cuts by year-end

• Fed: 86 bps (84% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)
• ECB: 79 bps (99% chance of fee lower at at this time’s determination)
• BoE: 79 bps (87% chance of fee lower on the upcoming assembly)
• BoC: 45 bps (52% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)
• RBA: 118 bps (78% chance of 25 bps fee lower on the upcoming assembly)
• RBNZ: 78 bps (99% chance of fee lower on the upcoming assembly)
• SNB: 24 bps (74% chance of fee lower on the upcoming assembly)

* for the RBA, the remainder of the chance is for a 50 bps lower.

Fee hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 14 bps (99% chance of no change on the upcoming assembly)

Since yesterday’s replace we received some slight adjustments within the pricing. There’s a much less dovish pricing for the RBA following the strong Australian employment report at this time (though it stays fairly aggressive in comparison with simply three weeks in the past). Some constructive feedback from BoJ officers relating to the necessity of fee hikes have additionally impacted the expectations with a barely extra hawkish pricing.

This text was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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