Revision to New Zealand knowledge will present development hasn't been as weak as beforehand estimated

Stats NZ have launched a preview od GDP revisions to be printed on December 19.

Westpac abstract:

The important thing factors are as follows (notice that slight additional revisions to the numbers beneath are attainable earlier than their formal launch):

• Actual GDP development (utilizing the production-based measure) is prone to be revised up by zero.8ppts to three.5percenty/y within the yr to March 2023 and by 1.1pts to 1.4percenty/y within the yr to March 2024.

• Actual GDP development utilizing the expenditure-based measure is prone to be revised up by 1.3ppts to three.9percenty/y within the yr to March 2023 and stay unchanged at zero.7percenty/y within the yr to March 2024.

These revisions indicate that:

• Latest development efficiency has not been as weak as beforehand estimated (certainly extra in step with that seen in Australia).

• The decline in per capita GDP, whereas nonetheless massive, has not been as steep as estimated beforehand.

• Labour productiveness development over the previous two years has not been as weak as beforehand estimated and so development in unit labour prices (productivity-adjusted wages) as implied by the Nationwide Accounts as been lower than beforehand estimated.

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I believe the RBNZ won’t be taking these under consideration in its determination as we speak, they haven’t but been formally launched as famous above. The Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand determination is due at 2pm New Zealand time on the 27th

• 0100 GMT on the 27th
• 2000 US Jap time on the 26th

i.e. high of the hour!

A 50bp price reduce is the consensus estimate.

Previews:

• Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – preview
• Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand price reduce anticipated on Wednesday 27 November – preview
• Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand (RBNZ) Shadow Board suggest a 50bp money price reduce this week
• ANZ forecast a 50bp curiosity reduce from the RBNZ subsequent week
• Reuters ballot: RBNZ to chop money price to four.25% on November 27
• Goldman Sachs expects a 50bp Reserve Financial institution of New Zealand price reduce this month

This text was written by Aaron Cutchburt at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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