Oil Information: WTI Crude Hits Key $69.89 Resistance—Will Bulls Break By means of?…

The market stays above the long-term pivot at $65.38, supported additional by the 200-day shifting common at $63.99 and the 50-day at $62.10. The crossover of the 200-day above the 50-day alerts a bullish bias within the broader pattern. Worth motion continues to consolidate inside this construction, awaiting a breakout catalyst.

Ongoing stress on Russian crude flows raises geopolitical threat premium

Merchants are intently monitoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s tightened ultimatum on Russia, demanding progress towards ending the warfare in Ukraine inside 10 to 12 days. The administration is threatening 100% secondary tariffs on international locations persevering with to commerce Russian oil, a transfer aimed squarely at China and India—Moscow’s largest clients.

Analysts at JP Morgan count on India to adjust to U.S. calls for, doubtlessly displacing 2.three million bpd of Russian barrels. China, then again, is unlikely to bend, elevating the chance of tariff escalation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China might face vital duties if it maintains its Russian crude consumption.

PVM’s John Evans famous that any ensuing hole in international provide would take time to fill, even when Saudi Arabia and OPEC step in. This lag provides additional help to near-term costs. Vanda Insights estimates a $four–$5 per barrel threat premium is already baked in.

Mexican exports drop sharply as Pemex prioritizes home refining

Including to supply-side stress, Mexico’s Pemex slashed exports by 39% year-over-year in June, all the way down to 458,103 bpd—the bottom month-to-month quantity since data started in 1990. The drop aligns with Mexico’s ongoing push for vitality “sovereignty,” prioritizing home refining. Output stays constrained at 1.6 million bpd, nicely beneath the corporate’s said aim of 1.eight million.

Pemex additionally diminished refined product imports by 38% final month as its new Olmeca refinery absorbed extra feedstock. Whereas the corporate goals to spice up manufacturing by way of non-public partnerships, execution stays restricted.