Pure Gasoline Information: Climate Forecast Crushes Demand Outlook, Futures Hit Contemporary Lows…

Are Climate Fashions Wiping Out Late-Summer season Demand?

Look, the climate simply isn’t doing the bulls any favors. Forecasts now name for an early style of fall throughout the Midwest and East, with highs topping out within the low 80s and even dipping into the 60s in spots. That’s taking a severe chunk out of cooling demand. Each day energy burn has already dropped to 77.9 Bcf, and extra softness is probably going as we shut out meteorological summer time. Extra possible than not, we don’t see any heat-driven demand pop till the again half of September—if in any respect.

Can Manufacturing Maintain Costs Pinned This Low?

If there’s a flooring beneath costs, it’s not coming from the availability facet. Decrease-48 dry gasoline manufacturing pushed as much as 108.four Bcf/day on Friday—up greater than 6% from final yr. Rig counts are regular at 122, and the EIA simply bumped its manufacturing forecast for 2025 and 2026. Backside line? Provide isn’t blinking. That places a cap on any upside transfer until one thing breaks in both demand or LNG exports.

What Did That Storage Miss Actually Imply?

Final week’s EIA report got here in gentle at simply +13 Bcf—properly beneath the +35 Bcf five-year common. On paper, that’s bullish. However in apply? The market shrugged. Inventories are nonetheless 5.eight% above regular for this time of yr, and merchants chalked up the miss as a one-off. With out sustained below-average builds, storage gained’t assist the bull case a lot.

Is $2.574 the Line within the Sand—or Only a Pace Bump?