Pure Fuel Information: Forecast Alerts Draw back Danger Beneath $2.762 Help Line…

Will Rising Manufacturing and Cooling Climate Cap Positive factors?

Forecast fashions turned sharply cooler throughout the japanese U.S. and elements of the Southwest for August 24–29, in response to Atmospheric G2. This shift is anticipated to curb late-summer energy demand for air con, making use of additional downward strain on costs. The up to date outlook undermines expectations for weather-driven demand, regardless of persistent warmth in elements of the South and West.

On the provision aspect, U.S. dry fuel manufacturing hit 108.four Bcf/day on Tuesday, up 5.7% year-over-year, in response to BloombergNEF. Manufacturing is working close to file highs, as confirmed by current EIA projections. The company raised its 2025 manufacturing forecast to 106.44 Bcf/day, up zero.5% from final month, and its 2026 estimate to 106.09 Bcf/day, up zero.7%.

Are LNG Exports and Demand Holding Up?

Decrease-48 fuel demand stays stable at 79.eight Bcf/day, up 2.7% year-over-year, providing a partial offset to the provision surge. Nevertheless, LNG web flows to export terminals slipped to 14.eight Bcf/day, down 6.1% week-over-week. This drop raises issues about U.S. export capability utilization, particularly as world markets—notably Europe—stay well-supplied. European fuel storage stood at 74% full as of August 16, beneath the 5-year common of 81%.

Does Storage Knowledge Recommend Extra Draw back Danger?

Final week’s EIA stock report added to the bearish tone. Storage rose by 56 Bcf, above the 5-year common of 33 Bcf and barely forward of consensus expectations. Inventories stay 6.6% above the 5-year seasonal norm, regardless of being 2.four% beneath final 12 months’s ranges. This margin suggests the market is comfortably provided heading into the autumn.

Electrical energy output additionally confirmed weak point, with the Edison Electrical Institute reporting a 1.9% year-over-year decline for the week ending August 9. Whereas cooling demand has seasonally light within the Midwest and Northeast, the anticipated warmth within the Southwest and Texas is probably not sufficient to tighten balances meaningfully.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Holds Beneath Resistance