Grasp Seng Index Information: Prolonged Tariff Truce and Beijing Yield New 2025 Excessive – Weekly Recap…

“I’ve simply signed an Government Order that can prolong the Tariff Suspension on China for one more 90 days. All different parts of the Settlement will stay the identical.”

China Stimulus Measures: Help for Property and Consumption

This week, Beijing introduced key stimulus measures geared toward supporting the actual property market and boosting home consumption.

Plans for bad-debt managers and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to accumulate unsold houses from builders beneath monetary misery drove demand for actual property shares. Supporting the housing market could possibly be an important step in the direction of boosting client sentiment and spending.

China’s Ministry of Finance additionally issued an implementation plan for a private consumption mortgage curiosity subsidy. The coverage provides curiosity subsidies on private client loans used throughout key sectors, together with autos, schooling, aged care, electronics, and residential enchancment. The mortgage curiosity subsidy, capped at three,000 Yuan per borrower per lender, shall be accessible from September 2025 to August 2026.

Hong Kong Actual Property and Tech Shares: Weekly Market Movers

The Grasp Seng Mainland Properties Index gained 5.three% within the week ending August 15. Beijing’s coverage announcement and actual property sector knowledge lifted demand for actual property shares. Longfor Group (0960) and China Assets Land (1109) jumped 7% and 11.15%, respectively.

Tech large Tencent Holdings (0700) rallied 6.64% after posting upbeat Q2 earnings, with income beating expectations. Alibaba (9988) and Baidu (9888) additionally posted features, sending the Grasp Seng TECH Index up 1.52% within the week. Nevertheless, JD.com ended the week down 1.71% after saying disappointing earnings.

China Financial Information: Warning Alerts for Progress Momentum

Retail gross sales, industrial manufacturing, mounted asset funding, and unemployment knowledge triggered issues about China’s economic system. The information highlighted a lack of momentum early within the third quarter:

• Retail gross sales rose three.7% year-on-year in July, down from four.eight% in June (forecast: four.6%).
• China’s unemployment charge rose from 5% in June to five.2% in July (forecast: 5.1%).
• Industrial manufacturing elevated 5.7% YoY in July in contrast with 6.eight% in June (forecast: 5.9%).
• Mounted asset funding rose 1.6% YoY in July after June’s 2.eight% rise.
• Home Value Index fell 2.eight% YoY in July after a three.2% decline in June.

East Asia Econ remarked on July’s knowledge, stating:

“China – softer once more. Property costs and gross sales, funding and retail gross sales all deteriorated in July. It’s no less than potential to argue that the worst of the drop in property exercise is now accomplished. That creates room for second-derivative enchancment, however even that could possibly be offset by slowing manufacturing capex.”

Grasp Seng Index Forecast: Will It Maintain 25,000 or Break Towards 26,000?

The Grasp Seng Index hit a brand new YTD  2025 excessive earlier than easing again. Regardless of falling again beneath the 25,500 stage, the Index remained above the essential 25,000 help stage and the 50-day Exponential Transferring Common (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.

Progress towards a US-China commerce settlement and new stimulus measures from Beijing might increase sentiment. A breakout above 25,500 might pave the way in which to final week’s excessive of 25,767 and the 26,000 stage. Conversely, rising US-China commerce friction and Beijing’s silence on coverage help might push the Index towards the 25,000 help stage. If breached, the 50-day EMA could be the subsequent key help stage.