Gold market July 2025 Overview and August 2025 Preview

Key takeaways:

●
Gold had a
quiet and consolidating month in July, however the long-term outlook stays
bullish.

●
Bodily
gold demand is weakening in top-consuming nations resulting from excessive costs.

●
Central
banks proceed to be vital consumers of gold, although at a slower tempo.

●
Main gold
actions occurred in refining and buying and selling hubs.

●
U.S.
financial coverage expectations are the dominant driver of short-term value
motion, with a current shift to a dovish outlook more likely to assist gold costs
within the weeks forward.

Overview

July was a comparatively quiet month for gold, at the very least by the current
requirements. XAUUSD, the first monetary instrument for buying and selling bullion,
fluctuated in a really slender 30-dollar vary between roughly three,270 and three,300 per
ounce (oz). This sideways development, which has been in place since Could, displays a
state of continuous market uncertainty. Whereas gold didn’t set a brand new excessive after
a powerful efficiency in April, it remained comfortably above the $three,000 mark
and managed to remain above the important 100-day shifting common regardless of coming
near breaching it. The earlier month was notably calm, with no single
day’s value change exceeding 1.6%, a uncommon prevalence for the sometimes unstable
valuable steel. Total, buyers and merchants drove gold right into a interval of consolidation
as they continued navigating a panorama of persistent geopolitical tensions,
ongoing commerce disputes, and shifting U.S. financial coverage expectations. Nonetheless,
XAUUSD skilled its first month-to-month decline since December 2024, albeit a
modest one among simply zero.four%.

Though the overall buying and selling atmosphere within the monetary markets
was something however calm, XAUUSD provided a moderately easy experience for merchants, because it
was free from any vital market-moving occasions. We now have singled out solely a
few vital ones:

Main market-moving occasions:

●
1 – 2 July. Gold surged over 1.6% in two
days, as buyers sought a protected haven following the U.S. Senate’s passage of a
main tax-cut and spending invoice. This new laws, which is predicted to
create a $three trillion deficit over the subsequent decade, is broadly believed to be
extremely inflationary. As well as, gold costs firmed after a
weaker-than-expected ADP employment report fueled hopes of the U.S. Federal
Reserve (Fed) reducing charges prior to anticipated.

●
11 July. XAUUSD
gained greater than 1% in a single buying and selling day after U.S. President Donald Trump
mentioned that he would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and introduced plans
to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most different buying and selling companions.

●
21 – 22 July. Over the course of two buying and selling
periods, gold costs surged to a five-week excessive, gaining greater than 2%. This
climb was largely pushed by rising market uncertainty forward of a 1 August
deadline, at which level the U.S. was scheduled to impose new tariffs on a
variety of nations.

●
23 – 30 July. Over a week-long interval, gold
costs declined steadily, primarily resulting from optimistic developments in
worldwide commerce and an absence of anticipated rate of interest cuts. Initially,
the value of gold began to fall as progress was made on a commerce deal between
the U.S. and the European Union (EU), which adopted the same settlement with
Japan. This easing of world commerce tensions bolstered riskier property like
shares and strengthened the U.S. greenback, making gold much less enticing to
buyers. The decline was additional exacerbated when the Fed, regardless of political
strain, held rates of interest regular and provided no clear timeline for future
cuts, which might have sometimes supported gold costs. Silver and different
valuable metals like platinum and palladium additionally skilled vital value
drops all through the week.

Fundamentals

Though gold entered a interval of consolidation, the broader,
long-term development continues to be decidedly bullish, as gold’s value stays comfortably
above key trendlines and MAs. Total, chaotic U.S. commerce coverage, rising fears
concerning the sustainability of the U.S. twin deficits (fiscal and commerce), limitless
geopolitical tensions and political instability, and strong structural demand on
the a part of central banks helped preserve the bullion’s value close to all-time highs.
Nonetheless, merchants that proceed to guess on future value will increase needs to be
cautious as record-high costs appear to have already began to dent bodily
demand for bullion.

China

Because the world’s main gold client, China’s buying actions
can affect world gold markets considerably. The most recent statistic on
bodily demand has been considerably bearish. Based on Reuters, web gold
imports by China via Hong Kong dropped by almost 60% in June in comparison with
Could, totaling 19.37 metric tons (mt). The import information aligns with a reported
three.5% lower in China’s total gold consumption in the course of the first half of
2025.

India

India, the world’s second largest gold client, has additionally been
underneath stress currently, as record-high costs are considerably decreasing demand
for gold jewellery. The World Gold Council (WGC) forecastsIndian
consumption will fall to a five-year low in 2025 and attain between 600 and 700
mt, a notable drop from the 802.eight mt consumed in 2024. Regardless of the general
decline, funding demand for gold is seeing a lift, with inflows into Indian
gold Trade-Traded Funds (ETFs) surging tenfold in June.

Switzerland

Switzerland’s essential function within the world gold market is in refining
and buying and selling. The nation is dwelling to a number of the world’s largest gold
refineries, which course of a good portion of the world’s newly mined and
recycled gold. Due to this fact, its customs information on gold exports might make clear
the general demand state of affairs.

Final month, Swiss Customs reportedthat gold exports
from the nation surged 44% in June, reaching their highest stage since March.
This enhance was primarily pushed by a big move of gold from the U.S.
to the UK, with the bullion passing via Swiss refineries. Based on Swiss
customs information, exports to the UK alone jumped to 83.eight mt in June from simply 16.zero
mt in Could. This development of gold returning to London vaults comes after billions
of ’ price of the steel had been despatched to the U.S. earlier within the yr to
hedge in opposition to potential tariffs that had been in the end not imposed. The London
Bullion Market Affiliation additionally reported a 2.1% month-on-month enhance in gold
held in London vaults in June, reaching the best stage since August 2023.

Central Banks

Central banks have been buying gold to diversify their
reserves, reduce reliance on the U.S. greenback whereas additionally defending in opposition to
inflation and financial instability. Presently, there are not any causes to count on
this development to discontinue.

Based on Bloomberg, the Peoples Financial institution of China (PBoC), China’s
central financial institution added gold to its reserves in June for an eighth consecutive
month. Different central banks, notably the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI) and Financial institution of
Russia (BoR), additionally continued to stockpile gold. Total, central banks round
the world purchased over 400 mt of gold within the first half of 2025, based on
estimates from Octa, a world dealer. Whereas this can be a substantial quantity, it is
really about 20% lower than what they bought throughout the identical interval in 2024.
Nonetheless, central banks proceed to be net-buyers of gold and in complete present the
largest supply of demand for the bullion.

ETFs

Traders, each massive and small, usually purchase gold-backed ETFs as a manner
to simply add gold to their portfolios for diversification. These funds are a
key driver of demand within the gold market. Primarily based on current experiences from the WGC,
gold ETFs globally skilled a complete influx of 74.56 mt, with funds in North
America accounting for almost 60% of that enhance (the date for July has not
been launched but). Based on LSEG, a monetary agency, flows into
physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds stood at simply above 40 mt
year-to-date with month-to-month outflows recorded solely in January and Could. Nonetheless,
there was additionally a minor outflow within the first week of July (see the chart under).

GOLD ETF MONTHLY FLOWS VS GOLD
PRICE

Dedication of Merchants

Other than central banks, world buyers have additionally remained fairly
bullish on gold. Based on the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC),
giant speculators (leveraged funds and cash managers) had been nonetheless net-long
COMEX gold futures and choices as of 29 July, 2025. Lengthy positions totaled
178,435 contracts vs solely 35,589 quick contracts, translating right into a net-long
place of 142,846 contracts (see the chart under).

CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS VS GOLD
PRICE

‘Though giant speculators stay
net-long, the dimensions of their publicity is considerably smaller in comparison with what
it was again in September 2024, when the uncertainty across the U.S.
Presidential elections fuelled bullish bets’, says Kar Yong Ang, a monetary
market analyst at Octa dealer. ‘Nonetheless,
whereas lengthy positions might have been lower, quick positions aren’t being added.
No one desires to be caught shorting gold throughout these turbulent instances’.

Outlook

Basically, the outlook for gold appears vibrant, however there are
essential caveats. We now have singled out three essential components that can
proceed to play out in August and the remainder of 2025.

U.S. Financial Coverage

Given how strongly the market reacted to the current NFP report, it
is obvious that buyers’ expectations relating to the U.S. financial coverage
proceed to be the dominant issue driving gold costs. Till just lately,
buyers had been rising more and more skeptical concerning the Fed’s willingness and
certainly its potential to ship extra charge cuts. Nonetheless, the newest NFP
report, which confirmed a a lot smaller-than-expected enhance in new payrolls in
July in addition to a serious downward revision in jobs creation for June,
basically cemented dovish expectations for the remainder of the yr. Traders
now broadly count on a 25-basis level (bps) charge lower by the Fed in September. They
additionally value in a roughly 60% likelihood of an extra charge lower in October
and a 47% likelihood of one other charge lower in December.

‘With these dovish expectations in
place, XAUUSD is more likely to stay supported within the weeks forward’, argues
Kar Yong Ang. ‘Nonetheless, inflation is a
main concern and the Fed is but to speak its readiness to chop the speed.
Tariff-related value will increase are but to be felt, and though U.S. client
1-year and 5-year inflation expectations have eased, they continue to be very excessive by
historic requirements. I feel some central banks, and possibly even the Fed, will
want to attend till commerce tensions are resolved earlier than committing absolutely to
charge cuts.’

Geopolitical uncertainty

Lingering world financial and geopolitical dangers proceed to play
out, with the continued commerce negotiations between the US and the remaining
of the world, significantly China, being probably the most important issue affecting the
gold market and the worldwide monetary system.

The conflicts within the Center East, such because the Israel-Hamas
hostilities, temporary spats between India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, Thailand
and Cambodia, and the continued battle between Russia and Ukraine, have
destabilised world politics and raised many fears starting from oil and meals
provide disruptions to the prospect of a worldwide battle. Gold, thought of a
‘safe-haven’ asset, sometimes sees elevated demand throughout political
uncertainty and instability. Whereas this can be very troublesome to undertaking the decision
of geopolitical conflicts, not to mention to forecast the emergence of latest ones,
peace negotiations within the hottest areas have already commenced. ‘Conflicting events appear to have at the very least
began to speak. A cease-fire within the Center East and Japanese Europe is now extra
possible than it was solely a month in the past, however a long-lasting peace might take years to
obtain. Both manner, any progress in negotiations or perhaps a non permanent cessation
of hostilities will enhance threat sentiment and have a bearish impression on gold,’
says Kar Yong Ang, world dealer Octa analyst.

Technical Image

Kar Yong Ang feedback: ‘At
the tip of July, it appeared like gold was getting underneath heavy bearish strain
and it appeared prefer it was about to lastly escape its two-month buying and selling vary
and break under the 100-day shifting common. With some massive commerce points sorted
out and the Fed being cautious about inflation, a value drop appeared fairly
possible. However then, a surprisingly weak jobs report got here out and fully
flipped every thing round.’

Certainly, trade-related threat premium might have began to depart the
market, however final Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls information boosted Fed
charge lower expectations, which, in flip, considerably weakened the U.S. greenback
and thus pulled XAUUSD larger. The short-term technical image for gold now
appears bullish once more.

Kar Yong Ang affords his perspective on the technicals: ‘In case XAUUSD rises above the important
three,395 stage and holds above it, merchants will then nearly actually try and
pull it in direction of the three,426 stage, the place short-term consolidation might start to
happen once more. Nonetheless, a assured rise above three,460 will open the way in which
in direction of new all-time highs. Alternatively, solely a drop under three,300 will
invalidate the underlying bullish development’.

Octa dealer affords a proprietary buying and selling
platform to facilitate buying and selling actions. Gold merchants can count on quick
execution and small spreads and likewise profit from the corporate’s devoted
analytical assist, which incorporates each day buying and selling concepts and academic
supplies.

XAUUSD DAILY TECHNICAL CHART

Key Macro Occasions in August
(scheduled)

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This text was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.