Ubaidahsan Americas FX information wrap 5 Nov: Shares rise, USD strikes down. Mkts await election.

• Main indices shut close to the excessive of the day as US voter go to the polls
• Crude oil futures settle at $71.99
• BOC Assembly minutes: BOC felt upside stress on inflation will proceed to say no
• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow development estimate 2.four% vs 2.three% final
• US sells 10-year notes at four.347% vs four.350% WI
• Video: Canadian greenback larger into the US election however structural considerations will not go away
• What key ranges are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD by the US elections
• Does the inventory market know one thing we do not?
• European fairness shut: German shares lead forward of the US election
• Trump marketing campaign had discussions about declaring untimely victory – report
• US October ISM providers PMI 56.Zero vs 53.eight anticipated
• When Do US Elections Polls Shut?
• US S&P World October closing providers PMI 55.Zero vs 55.three prelim
• 2020 recap: A reminder of the precise instances that races have been referred to as and betting odds shifted
• US September commerce stability -84.four billion vs -84.1 billion
• Canada September commerce stability -1.26 billion vs -Zero.80 billion
• Ubaidahsan European FX information wrap: The markets await the US Election outcome

The USD moved decrease vs the main currencies because the US voters went to the polls to elect the brand new President in addition to decide the stability of energy on Capitol Hill. A have a look at the main currencies vs the USD:

• EUR -Zero.45%
• JPY -Zero.35%
• GBP -Zero.58%
• CHF -Zero.10%
• CAD -Zero.53%
• AUD -Zero.77%
• NZD -Zero.44%

The USD index fell -Zero.41% on the day.

Wanting on the US debt market:

• 2 yr yield four.191%, +1.5 bps
• 5 yr four.159%, -Zero.7 bps
• 10 yr four.280%, -2.eight bps
• 30 yr four.441%, -5.three bps

The US shares moved sharply larger forward of the election outcomes:

• Dow +1.02%
• S&P +1.23%
• Nasdaq +1.43%

As we speak, the US commerce stability got here in close to expectations at -$84.4B, however the ISM providers PMI got here in larger at 56.Zero vs 53.eight expectations with the employment moveing larger however costs paid and new order gross sales decrease.

Evidently, the election outcomes can be combed over for clues to the bias, however realistically (or there’s a probablity) it might be a lot of days earlier than a real Presidential winner will be decided (it took till Saturday of round midday in 2020), and the stability of energy will be decided within the US Senate and the Home of Representatives. This yr, they do count on the states will be capable of depend sooner, remembering we have been in a pandemic in 2020.

This text was written by Emma Wang at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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