Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 142 bpsECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 140 bps BoE: 43 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming…

What are the main events for today?

In the European session, the only notable event was the release of the UK Retail Sales. The data beat expectations across the board by a big margin and gave the GBP a boost.There's nothing else on the agenda for the current session although…

FX possibility expiries for 18 October 10am New York lower

There is only one to be aware of on the day, as highlighted in daring.That being for EUR/USD on the 1.0850 stage. It is not one which ties an excessive amount of with any key technical ranges however the expiries might assist to only hold…

UK retail gross sales the spotlight of the agenda within the session forward

A stronger US retail gross sales report yesterday helped hold the greenback in a great place on the week. In the meantime, the euro was shaky from the ECB coverage determination as Lagarde did not consolation the economic system doomsayers.…

PBOC Governor says 7-day reverse repo fee shall be lowered by zero.2%

Folks's Financial institution of China governor Pan Gongsheng Anticipated that relying available on the market liquidity scenario by the top of the yr, the reserve requirement ratio may very well be additional diminished to obtain dynamic…

China Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official says financial indicators positve change

China's Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) deputy chief feedback:September financial indicators confirmed constructive modificationsChina's international commerce scenario this 12 months higher than anticipatedBasis for financial restoration…

China September new house prices -5.7% y/y (prior -5.3%)

China home price data for September 2024:-5.7% y/yprior -5.3%-0.7% m/mprior also -0.7%We've been banging on all year (more?) about the vicious cycle of lower home prices breeding buyer reluctance (why buy no when prices fall, get it cheaper…

US politics - "Massive Jack Smith doc dump" anticipated Friday - Trump needed this blocked

US web site politico with the information:massive Jack Smith doc dump coming Friday earlier than the election Trump had requested the decide within the case to delay the discharge of the particular counsel's proof till after the electionPertinent…

Japan information - September CPI Headline +2.5% y/y (vs. +2.5% anticipated)

Japanese CPI General 2.5% y/yanticipated 2.5%, prior three.zero%Core CPI (excluding contemporary meals) 2.four% y/yanticipated 2.three%, prior 2.eight%Core-core 2.1% y/yanticipated 2.zero%, prior 1.9%excluding contemporary meals and power,…

UBS see a lot extra European Central Financial institution price cuts, Dec & 2025. Euro has cyclical help

The ECB minimize charges on Thursday:Ubaidahsan Americas FX information wrap: ECB cuts charges, US retail gross sales beat estimatesGiven the state of the EU financial system analysts are piling in projecting additional price cuts:RBC anticipate…