A Highway Map to Over 28000 for the NASDAQ 100…

The Anatomy of the Rally from the April Low

The rally from that low has adopted an impulse-like sample thus far, with the NDX probably already within the grey W-v of the inexperienced W-Three, and so forth. The third, fourth, and fifth waves in a typical impulse — however not essentially in an ED — often attain the 161.eight%, 100.zero%, and 200.zero% extensions, respectively, throughout all wave levels, barring any unexpected however potential extensions.

On this case, the grey W-iii barely exceeded its ultimate goal (23969 vs. 23720), and W-iv could have bottomed final week, falling in need of its ultimate goal (22959 vs. 22144). Subsequently, we don’t but know if W-iv has bottomed out, which may occur often since no person has all of the solutions on a regular basis. A transfer above the grey W-iii excessive will affirm this, whereas a transfer beneath final week’s low signifies the low 22000s are first earlier than we see the grey W-v to ideally 24092-24694.

Observe that this goal zone is across the (black) 138.2% extension (22264) and will point out the highest of the extra important black W-Three, because the goal vary for a 3rd wave in an ED often falls between the 123.6% and 138.2% extensions measured from the black W-2 low (October 2022): 22768-24178. Nonetheless, as talked about, C-waves sometimes consist of 5 waves, so we favor to see one other inexperienced W-Four, W-5 sequence earlier than the black W-Four begins. This might goal the black 161.eight% extension at 26680.

For the reason that black W-2 lasted almost a 12 months, we should always anticipate the identical length for W-Four. Finally, we anticipate the NDX to surpass 28000 inside the subsequent few years earlier than this rally ends. Nonetheless, since nothing is assured, we have to set acceptable warning ranges to point when the NDX begins to diverge from this roadmap. These ranges function our security nets if we’re unsuitable, as drops beneath these ranges improve the possibility (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, respectively) that the highest is in: 1st, blue: 23484; 2nd, grey: 22973; third, orange: 22041; 4th, purple: 20613. Because the index rises, so will the warning ranges, serving to our premium publication members keep within the markets as lengthy and as safely as potential, whereas additionally permitting them to exit earlier than situations worsen.