Ubaidahsan Americas FX information wrap 21 Nov: BTC stalls simply wanting 100Ok.EURUSD new '24 low.

• US shares shut increased on the day
• Reuters ballot: RBNZ to chop money fee to Four.25% on November 27
• Crude oil settles at $70.10
• Is right now the day for Bitcoin 100Ok? Simply $1500 away now
• Extra from Goolsbee: Looks like we’re heading to 2% inflation
• Matt Gaetz withdraws title for Legal professional Common nomination
• Fed’s Goolsbee: It could make sense to gradual tempo of rate of interest cuts
• Main European indices shut increased on the day
• Age of AI: Nvidia’s Explosive Earnings
• US main Index for October -Zero.Four% vs -Zero.three% estimate
• US current residence gross sales for October three.96M versus three.93M
• BOE Mann: BOE ought to maintain charges longer to judge persistence
• Tech rebounds as Nvidia surges, Google stumbles
• ECBs Holzmann says warnings of undershooting 2% aren’t warranted
• Canada producer worth is for October 1 .2% versus -Zero.eight% final month
• Philadelphia Fed Enterprise Index for November -5.5 vs eight.Zero estimate
• US preliminary jobless claims 213Ok vs 220Ok estimate
• What technical ranges are in play for a few of the main currencies vs the USD for Nov 21
• ForexLive European FX information wrap: Greenback tentative amid blended markets
• Zelensky says Russia used new missile in assault on Ukraine right now

Markets:

• Gold up $19.76 or Zero.75% at $2669.75
• US 10-year yield Four.42%, up 1.6 bps
• US 2-year yield Four.344%, up three.6 bps
• WTI crude oil up $1.44 or 2.09% at $70.19
• S&P 500 rose 31.59 factors ro Zero.53% at $5948.70
• NASDAQ rose 6.28 factors or Zero.03% at 18972.42
• Russell 2000 rose 38.49 factors or 1.65% at 2364.01
• Dow rose 461.88 factors or 1.06% at 43870.35
• European shares moved increased. The Dax and Italy’s FTSE MIB snapped Four day dropping streaks.

The US greenback was blended in buying and selling right now with a bias to the upside. The USD fell vs the JPY, CAD and AUD.

• EUR, +Zero.61%
• JPY -Zero.59%
• GBP, +Zero.41%
• CHF +Zero.28%
• CAD -Zero.03%
• AUD -Zero.15%
• NZD +Zero.19%
• DXY +Zero.32%

Basically, current residence gross sales elevated by three.Four% to an annualized gross sales tempo of three.96M

Key takeaways from the present residence gross sales

• Present-home gross sales elevated by three.Four% in October to three.96 million (seasonally adjusted annual fee).

• Gross sales rose 2.9% in comparison with October 2023, the primary year-over-year acquire since July 2021.

• Median existing-home gross sales worth grew Four.Zero% year-over-year to $407,200.

• This marks the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year worth will increase.

• Unsold current properties stock rose Zero.7% to 1.37 million.

• Stock represents Four.2 months’ provide on the present gross sales tempo.

The rise comes regardless of mortgage charges transferring increased. The present 30-year mortgage fee is at 6.84% up from 6.00% at lows from September.

US preliminary jobless claims got here in lower than expectations at 213Ok vs 220Ok estimate. Nevertheless, persevering with claims have been increased than expectations and above final week’s ranges. Persevering with claims got here in at 1.908M vs 1.873M est and 1.872M final week. Jobs market nonetheless stays robust/stable.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing was blended with the present enterprise index transferring to adverse at -5.5 vs eight.Zero estimate and 10.three final month. Nevertheless, the 6-month index jumped to 56.60 from 36.70 final month. That took that measure to the best degree because the post-covid restoration.

Canada producer worth information was increased after a couple of months of declines. That did give CAD patrons a purpose to additional appropriate the USDCAD decrease. Nevertheless, the autumn was quick lived and that pair is closing close to unchanged.

Fed’s Goolsbee spoke right now. The Chicago Fed President advised that it could be prudent for the Federal Reserve to gradual the tempo of rate of interest cuts as they method the extent the place charges will stabilize. He expects charges to be considerably decrease throughout the subsequent yr and famous that inflation is trending towards the two% goal, with the labor market close to steady full employment. Goolsbee emphasised the significance of forward-looking information, resembling inflation expectations, whereas refraining from speculating on the consequences of unimplemented insurance policies. He additionally highlighted that the impartial fee stays far under present ranges.

ECBs Holzmann was much less dovish stating that considerations about inflation undershooting the two% goal are unwarranted. He emphasised the necessity to keep restrictive financial coverage in mild of ongoing worth dangers. Holzmann famous that whereas a fee reduce in December is the probably final result, it’s not assured.

Yields moved increased right now for the 2nd consecutive day. The two yr yield is skimming the corrective excessive from final week at Four.353%.

• 2-year yield Four.347%, +three.9 foundation factors
• 5-year yield Four.299%, +2.7 foundation factors
• 10-year yield Four.423%, +1.6 foundation factors
• 30-year yield Four.609%, +1.7 foundation factors
• 2-10 yr unfold is down -2.Zero bps at 7.5 bps
• 2-30 yr unfold can also be down -2.Zero bps at 26 bps

Bitcoin reached one other document degree with the worth pushing BITCOIN 100Ok. The excessive worth right now reached $99,121 however backed off and trades at $98,182.

Technically talking:

EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a brand new 2024 low taking out the low from final week at 1.04956. The 2023 low worth from stays the following goal at 1.0448. Transfer under that and the 50% of the transfer up from the 2022 low to the 2023 excessive is available in at 1.0405. A bounce increased might see extra upside momentum on a transfer above the excessive of a swing space at 1.05316. Get and keep above that and the 100 hour MA at 1.0555 (and transferring decrease can be focused.

USDJPY: The USDJPY moved decrease within the early Asian session and bounced off the 100 bar MA on the Four-hour chart at 153.88 at present. The value bounced up towards the falling 100 hour MA at 154.72 and the 200 hour MA at 154.89. A transfer above these ranges would tilt the bias extra to the upside as soon as once more because the ups-and-down for the week proceed into the final day of the week. Keep under the hourly MAs, and the 100 bar MA on the Four-hour chart can be eyed as key help.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved to the bottom degree since Could with a break of the low from final week at 1.2596. The low reached 1.2575 and bounced again to the 1.2596 low from final week. Consumers and sellers are battling round that degree. IN the brand new day, watch a transfer above 1.26137. If there may be momentum, it might tilt the sellers to patrons with the 100 bar MA on the Four-hour chart at 1.2649 because the goal. That MA did an excellent job of stalling the rallies right now. within the Asian and US morning session.

AUDUSD: For the AUDUSD the final three buying and selling days had discovered help close to the pairs 100 hour MA. That rising transferring common at present is available in and Zero.6501 which is just under the 200 hour transferring common at Zero.6504. That space can be a key barometer for the pair right now and going ahead. Keep above and extra upside probing will be anticipated. Transfer under and the bias shifts extra to the draw back technically.

Thanks to your help. Success together with your buying and selling.

This text was written by Emma Wang at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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