Goldman Sachs decrease its forecast for Australia’s financial development in 2025 on Trump vs China

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Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Australia’s financial development in 2025 (data comes through Bloomberg (gated)):

  • forecasts Australian home product (GDP) rising 1.eight% in 2025, down from its earlier forecast of two%

GS cite possible “destructive spillovers” from the incoming Trump’s anticipated improve in tariffs on China, particularly the affect on Australia’s exports to China. Trump has promised 60% tariffs on exports from China

GS’ Reserve Financial institution of Australia outlook:

  • forecasts a 25bp rate of interest minimize from the Financial institution in February 2025
  • terminal fee of three.25% by November 2025
  • “increased US tariffs on China as having a dovish read-through for Australian charges”
  • GS specific wariness over additional fiscal stimulus in Australia forward of the 2025 federal election, warn of upside dangers to charges

This text was written by Aaron Cutchburt at www.ubaidahsan.com.



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