ICYMI – Barclays sees two Fed cuts in 2025, warns of 50% U.S. recession threat below Trump

Barclays now expects two Fed cuts this yr after Powell signalled an easing bias, with additional strikes in 2026. The financial institution additionally warns of a 50% U.S. recession threat below Trump, with slowing jobs and rising unemployment preserving cuts in play.

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Barclays now expects the Federal Reserve to chop charges twice in 2025, in September and December, after Powell’s Jackson Gap remarks signalled an easing bias. Powell highlighted that dangers to full employment are shifting up the precedence checklist, opening the door to pre-emptive cuts with backing from reasonable FOMC members.

Barclays sees the Fed slicing in 25bp steps at quarterly intervals, with two extra strikes projected for March and June 2026, leaving charges at three.25%–three.50% by late 2026.

Individually, Barclays warned of a 50% likelihood of a U.S. recession below Trump, forecasting slowing jobs development, unemployment rising to four.2%, and Fed cuts because the economic system softens. Nonetheless, the bar for motion in September stays excessive; a robust August jobs report may maintain the Ate up maintain.

This text was written by Aaron Cutchburt at investinglive.com.