Pure Fuel Information: Bearish Market Eyes $2.725 Flooring Regardless of Bullish EIA Report…

Can the EIA Bullish Shock Overcome Cooling Demand Traits?

Thursday’s EIA report supplied near-term assist, with inventories rising simply +13 Bcf for the week ending August 15—nicely beneath consensus expectations of +18 Bcf and the five-year common of +35 Bcf. This bullish miss despatched September Nymex futures (NGU25) up +2.69%, closing at $2.828. Nevertheless, regardless of the shock, storage stays +5.eight% above the five-year seasonal common, underscoring a well-supplied market.

Climate continues to strain the bullish case. NatGasWeather famous that nationwide demand will ease within the coming week, as climate programs transfer throughout the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid-60s to low 80s, lowering the necessity for cooling. Additional out, forecasts from Atmospheric G2 level to cooler circumstances from August 31 to September four, a stretch more likely to suppress demand from energy mills.

How A lot Does Hovering U.S. Manufacturing Weigh on Costs?

The bearish headwind stays provide. U.S. dry gasoline manufacturing hit 107.5 Bcf/day on Thursday—up +5.2% year-over-year—in response to BNEF. In the meantime, the EIA lifted its 2025 manufacturing forecast to 106.44 Bcf/day, up from July’s 105.9 Bcf/day estimate, and raised 2026’s projection to 106.09 Bcf/day. The rig depend can also be nearing a two-year excessive, reinforcing the manufacturing ceiling over costs.

Decrease-48 demand clocked in at 79.four Bcf/day (+6.1% y/y), however LNG internet flows fell to 14.6 Bcf/day, a -6.9% drop from the earlier week. That decline in LNG export demand may additional cap any upside in costs, regardless of supportive home electrical energy output information displaying a +7.1% y/y acquire for the week ending August 16.

Will Technical Assist Maintain or Give Method?