First Gentle Information: Trump-Putin Assembly; US Retail Gross sales Knowledge Eyed…

Each the July CPI report (Shopper Worth Index) launched earlier this week – which got here in largely as anticipated – and yesterday’s PPI numbers present that companies are shouldering nearly all of the tariff burden for the time being, quite than elevating costs for the tip client. Of be aware, each CPI and PPI numbers feed into PCE information (Private Consumption Expenditures), which might be launched later this month and is what the US Federal Reserve (Fed) targets for inflation.

The S&P 500 was largely unchanged (zero.03%) yesterday to mark a contemporary closing degree of 6,468. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq 100 dipped 16 factors (zero.1%) to 23,832, and the Dow Jones fell 11 factors (zero.02%) to four,4911. In the end, I don’t anticipate the most recent PPI information to discourage the Fed from easing coverage. Nonetheless, I can’t think about a 50 foundation level (bp) minimize materialising, one thing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just lately referred to as for. Cash markets present buyers modestly trimmed Fed rate-cut bets following the wholesale inflation launch; 57 foundation factors (bps) of easing continues to be priced in for the year-end, and 23 bps for subsequent month’s assembly. So, we’re nonetheless very a lot on monitor for a charge minimize in September.

The July US retail gross sales figures will make the airwaves later immediately, together with client sentiment metrics from the College of Michigan for August, with the latter anticipated to carry comparatively regular. Economists anticipate retail gross sales to rise by zero.5%, barely decrease than the zero.6% in June, although bear in mind that the forecast vary spans a excessive of 1.four% and a low of zero.zero%. Excluding autos, retail gross sales are anticipated to have risen by zero.three%, down from zero.5%.

UK GDP Knowledge Reveals the Economic system Is Nonetheless Rising

The preliminary June UK GDP progress information (Gross Home Product) confirmed that the economic system held up in Q2 2025, rising by zero.three% amid help from authorities consumption. Nevertheless, regardless of a modest bid within the British +9 (GBP), the info have been decrease than markets had anticipated (zero.1%) and marked a slowdown in financial exercise from Q1 (zero.7%).

Regardless of the current information, the economic system continues to be rising at this level, and value pressures just lately rose to their highest for the reason that starting of 2024. Even with a loosening jobs market, I don’t see the Financial institution of England (BoE) speeding to trim the financial institution charge once more.

Nevertheless, the difficulty within the UK proper now’s largely centred on fiscal considerations; the Autumn funds is nearing, with expectations of elevated taxes/spending cuts to weigh on financial exercise. Consequently, the outlook for financial progress on the tail finish of this 12 months is unlikely to be a fairly image.