Crude Oil Worth Forecast: Eyes Counter-Pattern Rally as Bulls Goal Key Resistance Zones…

Resistance from Prior Worth Zones and Key Averages

The short-term path increased is challenged by a resistance band between $64.46 and $65.58, which features a prior month-to-month low turned resistance at $65.46. Clearing $65.58 might carry the subsequent wave of technical assessments: the 20-Day transferring common at $66.35, the 50-Day transferring common at $67.67, and the 200-Day transferring common sitting close to $68.10. These ranges are more likely to entice promoting stress if the rally extends.

Draw back Targets Outlined by Fibonacci Confluence

On the draw back, the subsequent key help zone is clustered close to $60.78–$60.66 — an space outlined by a 78.6% ABCD sample (purple) draw back projection and an identical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement degree. This goal beneficial properties significance after a current bearish crossover, the place the 20-Day transferring common fell under the 50-Day transferring common, reinforcing the longer-term downtrend bias.

AVWAP Flip from Help to Resistance

An anchored volume-weighted common value (AVWAP) line (gentle blue), drawn from April’s development low, performed a important help function by late June and most of July. After holding agency throughout a number of pullbacks, this line was decisively damaged on August 6. From a technical perspective, such a break typically turns prior help into resistance. Ought to crude rally again to this line, sellers could re-engage except a decisive breakout invalidates the bearish flip and sparks renewed shopping for momentum.

Outlook: Rally Faces an Uphill Battle

Whereas Thursday’s acquire introduces short-term bullish momentum, the transfer stays a counter-trend rally till crude decisively reclaims resistance above $65.58 and sustains energy by the transferring common limitations towards $68. Failure to shut above $63.63 would counsel that bullish momentum is fading, with renewed focus shifting towards the $60.70 help zone.

For now, merchants ought to deal with this as a tactical rally inside a structurally bearish market — one that might present a chance on each side, relying on whether or not value motion confirms a breakout or stalls at resistance.

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